Is Chris Matthews in Error About Trump?
On April 21, 2017, the MSNBC show called Hardball, aired and was hosted by political
pundit Chris Matthews.
About 10 minutes into the show, Chris Matthews repeated the myth that the Trump team
has been trying to pump up for months now. This myth is called: "The
Shy Trump
Syndrome
". Several hours later on the 11th hour with Brian Williams, Chris Matthews
again repeated the same myth as if it were true.
Chris Matthews talked about a pollster who claimed that he had to view Donald Trump
ahead by 8 points when polled by a robo call, and Hillary ahead by 3 points when
polled by a live person (all in Pennsylvania). Chris Matthews also said he was very
surprised when Pennsylvania went for Trump when the polls showed Clinton far ahead.
Chris Matthews then concluded (incorrectly in my opinion) that the "Shy Trump
Syndrome"
is true. That is, Trump supporters are ashamed to tell people (pollsters)
publicly that they are Trump supporters, and therefore tell people publicly that they are
instead Hillary Clinton supporters.
There are two very strong points ignored by this conclusion. First, there is another
explanation and one much more plausible. Polls which use robo calls, are generally
prohibited for use on cell phones. This means that those being polled by robo calls are
going to be exclusively land line people. That particular demographic has a much
higher proportion of older and more often Trump supporters. Live calls, could be either
by land line or to cell phones and with cell phones, younger and much more often
non-Trump supporters.
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Another point: In Pennsylvania and several states in particular, the percentage point
difference between the polls and the "actual count" (not really as we have said before
there was most likely election fraud favoring Trump at the electronic voting machines),
was quite large. This would mean that according to this Trump thesis, a very large
proportion of Trump supporters fell prey to the "
Shy Trump Syndrome".(STS)
Also this strain of Shy Trump Syndrome  (STS) seemed to be most evident and
prevalent in states where Touch Screen machines were used (almost impossible to
check for malware and fraud) and Optical Scan machines were used (also extremely
hard to detect malware or fraud). Odd, how states where paper ballots are used, STS
has not infected such a great proportion of Trump voters, as a rule.
Is Trump too Evil for Julius Caesar?
This was Chris Matthews conclusion as to why so many Trump voters were hidden.
They obviously were ashamed of Trump as being morally deficient (who else would
mock a disabled person). Thus, only to a robot could they reveal that they were
indentured to a mad man.
This so called Shy Trump Syndrome (STS) was first proposed by one of Trump's
spokes- people who had a knack for "alternative facts" (otherwise known as
falsehoods or sometimes lies).
Chris Matthews is a hard hitting, fair minded, and intelligent political reporter. Like others
in his field, I agree with sometimes and disagree sometimes. As a Statistician, I
sometimes baffled for a minute as I see so many in his field rush to the same judgment
about
Shy Trump Syndrome, (STS) which I see as a hoax.
I then remind myself that it would be hard in their position to put out in public the
probability of election fraud in favor of Donald Trump with only statistical proof, albeit
extremely strong statistical evidence.
Angel Justice Blog: Part 2 More about Putin Dream
Angel Justice Blog: Part 1 Dream about Vladimir Putin
How Putin Could Have Rigged the Electronic Voting Machines
Statistical Evidence that Electronic Voting Machines were
Rigged in favor of Donald Trump
Of course, the ideal would be to investigate the electronic voting machines. This site has
already provided massive statistical evidence that there was voter fraud at the electronic
voting machines in favor of Donald Trump.
You might want to check out the new Washington Post poll (4/23/17) which shows that
96% of Trump voters would vote for Trump again. According to the
STS proponents,
would not Trump voters be too shy to tell pollsters that they would vote for Trump
again. Instead, we have a whopping 96% suddenly overcoming their
STS to tell
pollsters that they voted for Trump and would so again--a complete contradiction of
STS!
In that same poll, only 2% said that they would not vote for Trump. According to this
STS thesis, Trump supporters and voter in large proportions will lie to pollsters and tell
them that they will vote for Hillary Clinton because they are so ashamed of Donald
Trump.
However, just considering one state's many polls taken, they were off by about 8%. This
is approximately 8% out of the 48% that Trump allegedly won in that state (these are
just approximations for simplicity sake). So we have about 8/48= 1/6= 0.17 or 17%.
Thus we should expect the Wapo poll to reflect this STS thesis,  and at least 17% of
those polled should say that they would vote for Hillary Clinton, if given another chance.
However, it was at most 2% since of course there may actually be some Trump voters
who actually would not vote for Trump again.
Thus, if STS exists, then the poll was
off by a factor of more than 8 times!  
More than that, according to Trump, this Wapo poll is not fake. Thus either the Wapo
poll is fake or
Shy Trump Syndrome is fake and simply made up...as this president
does over and over again.
STS is about as believable as the millions of invisible aliens that according to Trump,
voted for Hillary Clinton. However, he is now saying that he won the popular vote, when
he actually lost it by many millions. What will be the next crazy assertion this guy will
make?
Thus, if STS is a hoax, which it is, then Trump has no explanation how the pre election
polls and exit polls were wildly "wrong"...unless he is willing to admit it was due to the
rigging of the electronic voter machines in Trump's favor (easy to do, check this website).
It is getting harder and harder to tell the difference between Trump and the crazy person
who insists that he is Julius Caesar. Both claim that aliens have interfered with their
leadership. One claims that the aliens are invisible and are from outer space and the
other claims the aliens are invisible, they vote, and are from Mexico (millions of them) or
thereabouts. One dresses as Julius Caesar,  wields a sword in public and is locked up.
The other, acts like a fool, has and talks about, using nuclear weapons as if they were
toy swords, but is not locked up. Is the wrong person locked up?
Let us look at this from a reverse point of view: Suppose the Wapo poll is correct and at
most 2% of Trump voters who lied and said that they would vote for Hillary but really
would vote for Trump according to STS. 2% of Trump's (being generous to Trump) say
48 points = 1% (about). This does not explain the numerous other percentage points that
Trump was off by and well behind Clinton in numerous independent polls. This means
again, Trump was well outside the margin of error so many times,
it was virtually
impossible for him to win legitimately.
It means STS does not explain the error.
However, election fraud in favor of Trump at the electronic voter machines easily
explains the error.
Statistically speaking, you would then expect that same result to be reflected at the
Trump rallies. Can you imagine then, large numbers of Trump supporters who yelled on
television "lock her up" over and over again, would then later publicly tell pollsters that
"
I'm with her" (Hillary Clinton) and that they actually were Hillary Clinton supporters
and voters? Not very likely! This notwithstanding that Trump claimed he fired FBI
Director Comey because Comey was too hard on Hillary (and then he told the real
reason: because of FBI investigation of Trump and his aides with Russia)
Counter
"I only have a tie to Hillary,
and not a tie to Putin. Just
look at my
tie above!"  I'm
with her
.  (Hillary)(fake
quote
)(fake photo)
"Why does everyone think I am
lying when I say I will fire anyone
including James Comey, who says
anything bad about Hillary?
"I'm
with her"
(Hillary)(fake quote & photo)
"I might tell everyone to lock
her up. but to all pollsters, I
will always say:
 I'm With
Her
(Hillary)" (fake quote)
From Russia With Love