Why Some Polls may have incorrectly
shown Donald Trump ahead in the
Q: Why did some polls have Trump always in
the lead, while the vast majority of the rest of
the polls showed Hillary was winning by a large
A: Statistics is a science of prediction. The
mathematical basis for Statistics is very strong
and rigorous. If a poll is done correctly, it can
be extremely predictive. However, it must be
done correctly. Correctly is not always well
defined though. What is very important (but not
the only component) is that a Random Sample
(RS) must be selected. Preferably, a Simple
Random Sample (SRS) is the ideal (but may
be more expensive and not used).With an
SRS, every single member of the population,
say a certain states likely voters, have an equal
chance of being selected for the random
sample. In certain polls, the RS or SRS may
not have been correctly selected as only
land-lines were called and sometimes with
robo-calls (not a live person). These polls
usually showed that Trump was way ahead of
Clinton, including the National Poll
notwithstanding that Clinton won that by almost
3 Million votes!
"The people who cast the votes decide nothing.
The people who count the votes decide
Predecessor of Vladimir Putin
Watch this movie below about how easy it is to
hack voting machines and win an election
...and who are the people counting your votes?
They could be one of the people who has
hacked into your electronic voting
machine...and changed your vote!
Q: Why would using only land phones and robo calls
skew the Random Sample?
A: Many people these days, particularly younger voters
(and more likely to vote against Trump) have only cell
phones. Thus this is not a representative or Random
Sample, skewing the result. Also, many people, do not
respond to robo-calls...but may respond to live calls.
Q: Why do you think that the National Polls are more
reliable than the state polls?
A: This is because it is much much harder to rig the
result. You would need to hack many more electronic
voter machines, than for a state election. This could lead
to exposure of the hack with so many machines involved.
As said, you could theoretically hack several states with
only hacking just one machine in each state to effect the
Brutal Dictator of Russia